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Chapter 4 Introduction to Probability

 

4.1 Experiments, Counting Rules and Assigning Probabilities

 

In discussing probability, we define an experiment to be a process that generates well defined outcomes.

 

Experiment

 

Toss a coin

Roll a die

Play a football game

Experimental Outcomes

 

Head, tail

1,2,3,4,5,6

Win, lose, tie

 

 

                Sample Space

               

The sample space for an experiment is the set of all experimental outcomes. Experimental outcomes are also called sample points.

 

Counting Rules: Combinations, and Permutations

 

Combinations

 

The number of ways of picking kunordered outcomes from npossibilities. Also known as the binomial coefficient or choice number and read "n choose k,"

_nC_k=(n; k)=(n!)/(k!(n-k)!),

where n!is a factorial (Uspensky 1937, p. 18).           The factorial n!is defined for a positive integer nas

n!=n(n-1)...2.1.

So, for example, 4!==4.3.2.1==24. An older notation for the factorial is FactorialOld

(Mellin 1909; Lewin 1958, p. 19; Dudeney 1970; Gardner 1978; Conway and Guy 1996).

The special case 0!is defined to have value 0!==1, consistent with the combinatorial interpretation of there being exactly one way to arrange zero objects (i.e., there is a single permutation of zero elements, namely the empty set emptyset).

For example, there are (4; 2)==6combinations of two elements out of the set {1,2,3,4}, namely {1,2}, {1,3}, {1,4}, {2,3}, {2,4}, and {3,4}. These combinations are known as k-subsets.

Permutations

 

permutation, also called an "arrangement number" or "order," is a rearrangement of the elements of an ordered list Sinto a one-to-one correspondence with Sitself. The number of permutations on a set of nelements is given by n!(n factorial; Uspensky 1937, p. 18). For example, there are 2!==2.1==2permutations of {1,2}, namely {1,2}and {2,1}, and 3!==3.2.1==6permutations of {1,2,3}, namely {1,2,3}, {1,3,2}, {2,1,3}, {2,3,1}, {3,1,2}, and {3,2,1}

The number of ways of obtaining an ordered subset of kelements from a set of nelements is given by

_nP_k=(n!)/((n-k)!)

(Uspensky 1937, p. 18), where n!is a factorial. For example, there are 4!/2!==122-subsets of {1,2,3,4}, namely {1,2}, {1,3}, {1,4}, {2,1}, {2,3}, {2,4}, {3,1}, {3,2}, {3,4}, {4,1}, {4,2}, and {4,3}. The unordered subsets containing kelements are known as the k-subsets of a given set.

 

           

Home Work

1.       Five different books are on a shelf.  In how many different ways could you arrange them?

 

2.       a)  How many different arrangements are there of the letters of the word numbers?

b)  How many of those arrangements have b as the first letter?

c)  How many have b as the last letter -- or in any specified position?

d)  How many will have n, u, and m together?

 

3.       a)  How many different arrangements (permutations) are there of the digits 01234?

b)  How many 5-digit numbers can you make of those digits, in which the first digit is not 0?

c)  How many 5-digit odd numbers can you make?

4.       How many combinations are there of 5 things taken 4 at a time?

5.        a)   Write all the combinations of abcd taken 1 at a time.

b) Write their combinations taken 2 at a time.

c) Write their combinations taken 3 at a time.

d) Write their combinations taken 4 at a time.

6.  a)  A door can be opened only with a security code that consists of five buttons:  1, 2, 3, 4, 5.  A code consists of pressing any one button, or any two, or any three, or any four, or all five. How many possible codes are there?

b)  If, to open the door, you must press three codes, then how many possible ways are there to open the door? Assume that the same code may be repeated.